The other DrC made a connection a couple of days ago I’m embarrassed I didn’t make myself. She was musing about polls consistently showing President Trump losing to the 3-4 Democrat front runners, in much the same way the polls didn’t predict his victory in 2016.
Her answer, “I think there is a Bradley effect going on here.” To which I replied that I believe she is correct.
For those who don’t know, Tom Bradley was a popular black mayor of Los Angeles who ran for CA governor. In an outcome like Hillary Clinton’s, the polls showed he would win, but he didn’t.
After the fact pundits concluded voters, when polled, felt they should answer they intended to vote for the nice black man so that’s what they said. Said it even though it wasn’t how they eventually voted.
Psychologists call this a “social desirability bias.” That is, giving the answer that you feel makes you “look good or virtuous” in the eyes of the person asking the question.
The other DrC suggests many middle class people answer they will vote for Trump’s opponent because that is the “socially approved” or “socially desired” answer in their circles. Subsequently, in the privacy of the voting booth, they vote their convictions.
How else explain the huge crowds that turn out for Trump rallies and the embarrassingly small crowds drawn by those seeking the Democrat nomination? What people say and what they do are sometimes quite different.
