Thursday, August 1, 2019

Unintended Consequences

President Trump is taking action to permit Americans to purchase prescription drugs at (lower) Canadian prices in the U.S., or so his HHS Secretary claims. Brace yourself for upcoming unintended consequences, especially if you are Canadian.

Canadian governmental health insurers negotiate lower prices with U.S. based pharmaceutical firms. Don't be surprised if those prices are not lower, going forward. The Pharma firms' best way to forestall Trump's initiative is to raise Canadian prices to equal those in the U.S. Expect them to do exactly this.

It isn't clear that Canadian governmental health providers have much recourse with regard to those Rx drugs whose patent protection has not lapsed. They can simply decide to do without the newest expensive drugs with no generics available, if Canadians are willing to face higher risks to life. Or they can decide to subsidize Rx drug purchases for Canadians only, not for free-riding foreigners.

Everybody, including here in the U.S., can buy off-brand generic drugs cheaply and they do so now. That is no solution.

I'll make a prediction. Trump's effort to get Rx drugs for Americans at the now-lower Canadian prices will result in Canadians paying the higher U.S. prices within a year or two. I bet they'll hate that, and him, not that he particularly cares.