Wednesday, August 28, 2019

The Horserace, Revisited

On Monday we wrote "Warren and Sanders are in a dead heat with Biden in the latest poll." The poll referenced was a Monmouth poll with a small sample size (n=300).

Many questioned that finding, and subsequent polling shows the finding to be an outlier, probably invalid. Power Line's Paul Mirengoff has identified five later polls, all of which show Biden comfortably ahead of Warren and Sanders. Most show the latter two in a near tie for second. Two find Warren ahead of Sanders, three have her trailing him.

Mirengoff does a nice analysis of which of the two - Warren or Sanders - is most likely to pick up Biden supporters who become disillusioned with Joe. He concludes Warren has the better shot at them, also at the pro-woman vote which is likely a significant factor among Democrats.